Former President Donald Trump has revived the threat of a US strike on Iran's nuclear facility, warning that Washington would "knock it out fast" if Tehran pressed ahead with nuclear weapons development. The statement, made as US-Israeli military operations against Iran continue, arrives at an unexpected moment: new tanker-tracking data show oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz at nearly the volumes seen before the conflict began, suggesting the crisis that once threatened to choke global energy supplies may be easing even as the rhetoric sharpens.

Trump said nuclear weapons were not necessary for the United States to achieve its objectives regarding Iran, framing a potential strike as a preventive measure rather than an escalation. Iran's foreign ministry rejected the claim outright, denying that any nuclear weapons development is taking place and dismissing the American threats as baseless. The exchange is the latest in a series of hostile statements between Washington and Tehran since early 2024, when US and Israeli forces began a sustained campaign of strikes against Iranian targets.

A Fragile Calm in the Gulf

The military posturing contrasts sharply with what is happening on the water. According to tanker-tracking firm Kpler, oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz climbed to an average of 16 million barrels per day in September, the highest level recorded since the US-Iran conflict escalated. That figure remains below the roughly 19 million barrels per day that moved through the strait before the recent tensions, but the recovery marks a significant shift from the depths of the crisis, when fears of mined shipping lanes and military confrontation sent insurance costs and oil prices soaring.

The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman, is the single most important chokepoint in global energy trade, carrying roughly a fifth of the world's oil supply at full capacity. Any disruption there ripples instantly through markets in Europe, Asia and the United States. The fact that flows are climbing back toward normal, even as Trump threatens new strikes, suggests that Iran's capacity or willingness to seriously disrupt shipping through the strait may be more limited than many feared earlier in the conflict.

That pattern echoes an older one. During the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s, attacks on tankers and the mining of Gulf waters repeatedly drew American, British, French and Soviet warships into the region, and the threat to oil exports became a central preoccupation of Western governments. The current standoff, decades later, revives the same basic anxiety: that instability in the Gulf can translate almost immediately into global economic pain. What is different this time is that the data, so far, point toward resilience rather than rupture.

Why It Matters for India

The recovery in Hormuz traffic carries particular weight for import-dependent economies, and few are more exposed than India, which relies on the Gulf for a large share of its crude oil imports. A sustained disruption to shipping through the strait would push up fuel costs, widen India's import bill and add pressure to a rupee that has already shown vulnerability to global shocks in recent years. Analysts have long warned that India's energy security is closely tied to stability in the Gulf, given how little room the country's current account has to absorb a sudden spike in oil prices.

For now, the rebound in tanker volumes offers a measure of reassurance to New Delhi and other oil-importing nations. But the gap between the current 16 million barrels per day and the pre-conflict baseline of 19 million suggests the market has not fully shaken off the effects of the tensions, and traders remain wary of how quickly conditions could reverse if Trump follows through on his threat to strike Iran's nuclear facility.

An Uncertain Path Ahead

The contradiction at the heart of this moment, rising military threats alongside recovering oil flows, reflects the unusual character of the current standoff. Unlike past Gulf crises that unfolded as sudden shocks, this conflict has simmered for months, with periodic escalations that have so far stopped short of the kind of sustained disruption to shipping that would send prices sharply higher.

Whether that holds depends largely on what happens next. Iran's denial of nuclear weapons development at the disputed site does little to resolve the underlying dispute, and Trump's warning that the US could act quickly leaves open the possibility of a strike that could again rattle markets and test the fragile recovery in Gulf shipping. For now, traders and governments alike appear to be betting that the current calm, however tenuous, will hold.